The central bank predicts that the negative economic growth recorded in the December quarter will be repeated in the March and June quarters, with the economy shrinking by a total of 1.25 per cent before beginning to pick up from the middle of this year.
According to Merrill Lynch, it is now over:
"The recession is over" Merrill declared in a report Tuesday authored by Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist.
The brokerage’s famed horned mascot is snorting again: "We are bullish on global equities," Hartnett says in the report.
According to news articles quoting US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, it will be over in a matter of months. Of course, he never actually says anything solid, he simply alludes:
"We have a powerful set of policies coming on stream," he said. "We have a very good chance of seeing the US economy and the global economy get back to the point where [they are] growing again over the next few quarters."
According to Dennis Kneale, it has been over since the start of this quarter.
The market has certainly reacted accordingly. That is to say, the stock market reacted, the futures market's message is plainly unchanged. I'm unaware of a history of successful predictions from any of these sources, and quite aware of a lack of success, so I'll add my own prediction to the pot:
The global economy will be out of "green shoots" in a matter of months - that is, the hope of an imminent recovery will melt away to be replaced by fear and then panic.
No comments:
Post a Comment