Friday, February 27, 2009

Earthquake Warning

Looking at the ASX toward the end of day, you'll see a plunge, around 1%, from 3:40PM to 4:00PM. It was across the board, affecting all sectors equally, and it appeared to have no origin and no news behind it. On the futures market, it's a 1.5% plunge from 3:40PM to 4:10PM, a sharp spike up, another spike down and then settled. The volume on the futures had 10,000 contracts over half an hour, a record for the March SPI contract.

To me it looks like someone decided to short Australia via the futures market with A$800 Million nominal value, or at the very least A$50 Million margin, and the entire market was dragged down through arbitrage from that. There's no way the market would have supported that large a short after close, so it would seem that someone knows something going down over the weekend and is betting large, and at the last minute available.

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